## Oliver 75 - 13th Question

jyotimayank
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### Oliver 75 - 13th Question

Question 13.
In a traditionally drawn decision tree, a circle represents ___________.
A. a chance to which no expected monetary value can be assigned so that a likely pay-off can not be shown.
B. a decision to which no expected monetary value can be assigned so that a likely pay-off can not be shown.
C. a chance to which an expected monetary value may be assigned to calculate the most likely pay-off.
D. a decision to which an expected monetary value may be assigned to calculate the most likely pay-off.
Jyoti Gupta
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EsakkiMuthu
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### Re: Oliver 75 - 13th Question

I will go with D
Regards
Esakki
PMI-ACP, PMP
jyotimayank
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### Re: Oliver 75 - 13th Question

In a traditionally drawn decision tree, a circle represents ___________.
Yes the correct answer is option D : a decision to which an expected monetary value may be assigned to calculate the most likely pay-off.
A decision tree is one of the tools used to determine quantitative risk analysis used to reach a computed optimal solution using probability distributions as a basis. The circle represents a "chance node," meaning a chance to which an Expected Monetary Value (EMV) may be assigned to calculate the most likely pay-off.
For more details on this topic please refer to the following link
http://www.izenbridge.com/videogallery/ ... 11-part-6/
Jyoti Gupta
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suresi00
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### Re: Oliver 75 - 13th Question

I guess the answer is C. A circle is a chance node.

Some facts on decision trees.

Tree is build left to right but evaluated right to left. This process is known as rolling back the tree.

There two nodes

Chance node: we can calculate the expected payoff represented by the probability distribution at the node.
Decision node: we calculate the largest expected payoff to determine the best action.
ihuseynli
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### Re: Oliver 75 - 13th Question

In tutorial, circle indicated Chance, why answer is Decision?
Br,
Ismayil Huseynli, ITIL®, OCE®, OCA®
Baku, Azerbaijan