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### Confidence Level

Posted: Mon Apr 24, 2017 2:33 pm
Hi,

Critical path of the project has 3 activities in sequence . Activity A has optimistic estimate as 8,pessimistic as 16 and most likely as 12.Activity B has optimistic estimate as5,Pessimistic estimates as15 and most likely estimate as 0.Activity C has optimistic estimate as 10,pessismistic estimate as 20 and most likely as 15.What is the confidence that project would finish between 34-40 days?

Total project variance comes out to be 9.8 and square root of variance =2.7.Not sure how to solve further - Can you please assist?

### Re: Confidence Level

Posted: Mon Apr 24, 2017 3:14 pm
formula
Confidence Interval= Project Mean +/- 1SD will give you a range at 68% confidence
Project Mean +/- 2SD will give you a range at 95.5% confidence
Project Mean +/- 3SD will give you a range at 99.97% confidence

### Re: Confidence Level

Posted: Mon Apr 24, 2017 11:06 pm
1 sigma =68.26%
2 Sigma =95.46%
3 Sigma =99.73%
6 Sigma = 99.99%

Thanks.

### Re: Confidence Level

Posted: Tue Apr 25, 2017 2:04 am
Thanks - So answer will be .68? Since SD of the project is 2.7?

a).68
b).997
c).95
d).88

### Re: Confidence Level

Posted: Wed May 17, 2017 8:34 am
vaishnavi wrote:Hi,

Critical path of the project has 3 activities in sequence . Activity A has optimistic estimate as 8,pessimistic as 16 and most likely as 12.Activity B has optimistic estimate as5,Pessimistic estimates as15 and most likely estimate as 0.Activity C has optimistic estimate as 10,pessismistic estimate as 20 and most likely as 15.What is the confidence that project would finish between 34-40 days?

Total project variance comes out to be 9.8 and square root of variance =2.7.Not sure how to solve further - Can you please assist?

Such questions are rare in PMP , do not spend too much time on those