Oliver Lehman - Q73

[kniraj]

During project planning, you are presented with the following diagram that depicts a cumulative likelihood distribution for the duration of a project:

Oliver-Q73

oliver73.PNG (13.27 KiB) Viewed 2326 times

What kind of conclusion can you draw from the information depicted in it?
o The likeliness that the project will finish exactly at the date marked with “Deadline” is 80%.
o The likeliness that the project team will exceed the date marked with “Deadline” is at 80%.
o If the project team will meet the deadline, project costs will be 80% of the budgeted costs.
o The likeliness that the project team will meet the deadline or will finish earlier is at 80%.

Correct answer is 4. Please help me understand what graph is this and how do u interpret this.

[signor_rk]

This is the typical S-Curve of EVM. 100% is the BAC line , and the Deadline is the Data Date. So , in this case , BAC line is achieved , but at a later date.
At the Data Date , i.e. , at the Deadline , only 80% of BAC is achieved , might be the Project is terminated , or Closed early.

[pank_pmp]

I did Cumulative Distribution Probability (CDP) in my Green Belt Certification . For more understanding read Probability Distribution Function (PDF). You just have to have understanding of these but do not get into details since they are more statistical and many software like Minitab etc can do it for you automatically. I am not sure PMP will test or expect aspirants to know them in details. I think so