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Decision Tree

Posted: Tue Sep 16, 2014 10:20 pm
by umeshbww
Under which of the following scenarios would you not use a Decision tree?
A. When some future scenarios are unknown.
B. When you need to look at the implications of not choosing certain
alternatives.
C. When the future scenarios are known.
D. When the outcomes of some of the actions are uncertain.

Answer Explanation : C - You would use a Decision Tree when uncertainty and unknowns exist regarding future scenarios and their outcomes; not when future scenarios are known.

My question is : If I don't know future scenarios - how can I calculate probability and impact. I can only calculate Net value if I know various future scenarios with probability and impact value.

Re: Decision Tree

Posted: Wed Sep 17, 2014 1:42 am
by saket
Some extract from PMBOK..

Decision Tree Analysis. A diagramming and calculation technique for evaluating the implications of a chain of
multiple options in the presence of uncertainty.

Because tree diagrams permit the creation of nested branches that terminate into a single decision point, they are useful as decision trees for establishing an expected value for a limited number of dependent relationships that have been diagramed systematically


Now the idea is , you know the possible option in Decision tree , we can not make decision tree if we do not know the possible possible options.

Re: Decision Tree

Posted: Wed Sep 17, 2014 3:02 pm
by umeshbww
Thanks Saket - this question is from Scordo - I selected answer as option A. When some future scenarios are unknown.

But Scordo mentions answer as option C. I was under same assumption we can not make decision tree if we do not know the possible options.